It’s still not clear the extent to which Israel’s activities are helping to keep Iran from achieving its strategic goals. But one thing is very clear – scarcely a day passes without some senior Israeli official speaking out against the Iranian regime.
Sunday’s harvest included an interview by Prime Minister Naftali Bennett with Britain’s Sunday Times and, more unusual, an interview by the head of the IDF General Staff’s strategic planning division, Maj. Gen. Tal Kelman, with the Bahraini paper Al Ayam.
Kelman announced that Israel believes in a negotiated solution to the nuclear crisis, and if none emerges, it will seek international military action against Iran. He is one of the smartest and most judicious officers in the Israel Defense Forces’ top brass, but it’s not quite clear what business a general in uniform has making political pronouncements, especially when an active international front against Iran seems like a distant dream.
But in any case, these remarks won’t change much, just as the image of an American bomber being escorted through the Middle East’s airspace by Israeli and Egyptian planes (separately) won’t make anyone in Tehran tremble with fear. Even this symbolic flight was preceded by intensive discussions between the Americans and their allies, who sought to agree on a measure that would deter the Iranian regime. But in the end, the Biden administration chose the most minimalist option available to it.
Aside from all the verbiage, Israel also seems to have been taking an unusual amount of action recently. On Saturday, the fourth airstrike of the past month reportedly took place near Damascus. That was preceded by a cyberattack that severely disrupted the supply of gasoline to Iranian drivers for two days. The foreign media attributed both attacks to Israel.
The bombing in Syria was apparently aimed at a shipment of precision weapons from Iran to Hezbollah. The assumption is that it was carried out during the day rather than at night because of the urgency of the mission.
The cyberattack followed an earlier, similar attack that disrupted maritime traffic in the Iranian port of Bandar Abbas in May 2020. As with alleged Israeli attacks on Iranian shipping, this raises two questions.
First, do such attacks produce tangible results? Second, since Israel can’t deploy a protective shield over every website of possible interest to the Iranians despite its talents in the area of cybersecurity, isn’t it leaving itself open to counterattacks? It’s worth noting that the maritime attacks have decreased recently, following a series of Iranian retaliatory strikes.
In any event, the strategic impact of these operations seems to be minor at best. Undermining ordinary Iranians’ quality of life won’t erode the regime’s hold on power when it has maintained this hold for years under the steamroller of American sanctions. And while the “war between the wars” in Syria has reduced the amount of weaponry smuggled to Hezbollah and hindered Iran’s entrenchment in the region, it certainly hasn’t put a stop to either development.
To a large extent, Israel’s high level of activity stems from frustration. Senior defense officials admit that Israel has minimal influence over America’s positions in the nuclear negotiations and that the Biden administration would apparently be happy to sign a new agreement similar to its predecessor if the Iranians would be so kind as to resume serious talks.
Israel is causing Iran some localized damage and creating smoke both in cyberspace and airspace (assuming these really are Israeli attacks). But so far, it hasn’t brought about any strategic change in the regional situation.
The most important move that has taken place recently is America’s ongoing exit from Central Asia (where it completely withdrew from Afghanistan) and the Middle East (where it is reducing its involvement). U.S. President Joe Biden is thereby continuing the policies of his predecessor, Donald Trump. Iran can read the map just fine, as evidenced by its growing closeness with China and its efforts to reconcile with the predominantly Sunni Muslim states of the Persian Gulf.
Israel has managed to sting the Iranians, and occasionally to cause it pain, but so far, nothing more than that. The big question that it will face down the road is whether to try to sabotage the nuclear program.
There has recently been renewed talk about military preparations for airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities. But in reality, according to reports in the international media, the main successes to date against the nuclear program have been achieved through cyberattacks or undercover sabotage operations.
The Assad regime regroups
One of the main beneficiaries of the new U.S. approach is the Assad regime in Syria, which has gradually reestablished its grip on the country. With a tailwind from Russia and Iran and decreasing interest from America, President Bashar Assad is worrying less about the stability of his regime.
This change is also evident in how the region’s predominantly Sunni Muslim countries are treating the regime. Some have resumed doing business with it. Others are once again talking openly with senior government officials in Damascus.
With help from Russia, Assad seems to be beating the new rebellion in the southwestern province and city of Daraa. This is primarily of symbolic importance, since Daraa is where the uprising that later became a civil war first erupted in early 2011.
Israeli defense officials expect Assad to try to accelerate the country’s reconstruction but say that recovering from the ravages of the war could take decades. Consequently, Israel isn’t currently worried about the Syrian military rearming, aside from its acquisition of anti-aircraft systems. The Syrian army is interested in suppressing rebellions and preserving the regime, not in starting fights with the IDF.
The fact that the airstrikes attributed to Israel have continued even after Bennett’s meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Sochi on October 22 once again shows that Moscow isn’t particularly concerned by the friction between Israel and Iran in Syria. As long as Israel doesn’t undermine Russia’s military interests there, Putin apparently couldn’t care less.